Friday, May 4, 2018

Hello May, What Have You for US?

May is a month that traditionally produces strong results in the local Real estate market. I wonder what she has in store for us this year? The MLS data still shows a rather slow production of new listings and the buyer pool seems to be about the same as last year maybe a little less as the rates are creeping up.

Many agents are hoping for more listings to appear, but be careful what you wish for. A few more would be nice but this market is more precariously perched than it may seem. The tight inventory makes it feel like it is a strong seller's market. In reality rising rates are biting into the buyer pool and a blitz of inventory could cause a flat line on pricing. We don't need that either. A continuing erosion in the buyer pool along with continued tight inventory should lead to more modest appreciation which is more healthy than giant gains in home prices.

I wouldn't mind seeing a tad more inventory as finding homes can be a nightmare. But watch the rates. They are still relatively low, but many buyers have been spoiled by a decade of crazy low rates and things are normalizing. Rates at 6% is a normal and typically healthy thing and we should be there in the next 12-18 months.

So hopefully May will bring us a slight perk in the inventory allowing those frustrated buyers a chance to find something. Sellers should be mindful of the potential for a price slowdown and cautious when considering offers. Sometimes the proverbial bird in your hand is really better than two in the bush.

I feel like May will produce roughly the same number of new listings as last year and the pool of buyers will get just a tad thinner. That should lead us closer to the scenario many analysts are predicting, modest price growth of 4-6% fro 2018.

Tuesday, May 1, 2018

April Showers and a heatwave!

April is in the books and not surprising, she was rather fickle and feisty. The month started out with a some chilly weather including lows below freezing and highs int eh middle 40s. That's chilly in April. But it didn't take long for Mr. Hyde to switch back to Dr. Jekyll and some nice spring weather presided over several days early in the month. Up and down and back and forth Miss Spring toyed with us in April. The showers we expect in April were a bit under the typical. Towards the end of the month Mr. Hyde emerged again and this time he was a bit 'hot' under the collar with the first 70° mark coming in at nearly eighty degrees and temperatures that would get into the middle to upper eighties.

On the thermometer we saw a seesaw of action. The coldest mark cam on the morning of April 3rd with a sub freezing 30.4° one of 11 days with lows in the 30s which is a bit many for this late in the year. The chilliest afternoon high was the day of the fool, April 1st when the mercury topped out at a nippy 46.8°. On the other end of the spectrum the warmest temperature was a toasty and very July-like 86.4° on the 26th. That hot day followed the first eighty plus mark of the year on the 25th when it was 82.9 and that followed the aforementioned first 70 when it was 79.7° on the 24th. The weird part was that the day after the scorcher only managed a high of 55.9°. What a quick departure from summer and back to "early" spring conditions. Average temps over the month were a tad above my 17 year average with 43.7° low and 60.84° high, 2 and 1 degree over respectively.

Nearly all of the month's rain came in the first half and only 2.8 inches hit the pan well shy of my typical 4.24 inches. Nary a flake of snow fell in the valley but there was quite a bit of low elevation snowfall for April with the local foothills getting several dustings over the month. The higher foothills such as Silver Star still have bits of winter clinging to the surface here in May. The wettest day was the 7th when I recorded 0.61 inches.

So far May is starting out rather cool and uneventful. The weather gang at NWS Portland seem to think some nice spring weather with highs in the low to mid 70s are coming up later this week. Springalicious!

Soak it up my friends, soak it up.